Title: Post Election Insights
Author: Andrew Molchan
Date: Wed July 13th, 2005
This article originally ran in the December 2004 issue of American Firearms Industry Magazine
(Fort Worth, TX, November 11th 2004) Although I knew President Bush would win, I’ll admit to being a little nervous those last few weeks of the campaign. President Bush isn’t the world’s greatest salesman, and there are things he’s doing wrong. However, it turned out to be a major victory for our firearms industry, and America.
In the October 2004 issue of AFI on page 5, I wrote, “Kerry is another Massachusetts Michael Dukakis….speaking of Dukakis, and the left wing Massachusetts politicians, another basic military axiom is, Once an attack has failed, don’t attack again in the same old way.” The Democrats ran another left wing Massachusetts politician, in the same old Dukakis way, and they lost again in the same old way. The Democrats four years ago did the same thing with Joe Lieberman and with Teddy Kennedy.
In the May 2004 issue of AFI on page 8, I wrote, “It was Bill Clinton, about 16 years ago, when he was head of the Democratic Leadership Conference, who said the Democratic Party has to stop running big tax Northeast liberal Massachusetts Senators for President.”
In that same May 2004 issue on page 8, I also wrote, “The definition of insanity is doing the same old thing in the same old way and expecting different results. Will Kerry succeed where Edward K. and Dukakis failed?” I didn’t think so, and I was correct.
In the same May issue on the same page 8, I wrote, “As a person who was once very active in the Democratic Party…I liked Howard Dean. I saw, and still see Dean as a Gorbachev for the Democratic Party. I see Dean as somebody who could have been an effective Party reformer. Those Democrats who endorsed Dean: like President Carter, Al Gore, Senators Bradley and Harkin and other thinking Democrats, they made the correct choice.” In retrospect, Kerry, Mr. perfect hair at the head of the ticket, he lost the Presidential race, lost the Senate races and House races, and most of the races for Governor, so if Dean had run he couldn’t have been a bigger loser than Robin Hood Kerry. For the above statement, I give my apologies to Robin Hood who stolid from the rich to give to the poor. Kerry would have stolid from everyone and used the money to build a bigger imperial plantation.
What I really disliked about Kerry was his total lack of genuine humor. All his so-called jokes were cynical and mean. President Bush, for al his faults, can laugh at himself. President Bush looked human while Kerry always looked like a manikin in the window of an over priced snobbish men’s store.
Speaking of Democratic Party plantations, in this election it was highly encouraging to see a bigger percent of Black people had acquiring a better sense of political reality. In this election more Blacks than ever rejecting the plantation gold slave chains of the Democrats. Back in 1960 I was a member of the NAACP. That’s when the NAACP was on the right side of all the issues. Today, in the 21st century, the only people who are going to help Black people are Black people through their own efforts. Black people will only get empty words and empty promises from European nobility wannabes like John Kerry, Teddy Kennedy and Hillary Clinton.
Now that Kerry is in the garbage can of history, the Democrats would be smart to make Dean the new head of the Democratic Party.
April 2005 Editorial Comment: The Democrats took my advice and made Dean head of the Democratic Party. For years I’ve know that the Democratic Party leadership reads my column more than the Republican leadership. The Republicans think of Dean as a joke, but their wrong. Dean will identify the main weaknesses of the Democratic Party and create perceptions that will in part correct those weaknesses. A.M.
As I wrote in AFI, I though Kerry’s nomination was a set up from the word go. In the same May issue, on page 8, I wrote, “As I’ve said for over ten years, Bill Clinton is a political genius. He knows exactly what he’s doing, and he knows how to plan 20 years ahead. Kerry has to lose in 2004 because Hillary Clinton wants to win in 2008…Here’s my prediction, Kerry will lose, and the stage will be set for (Hillary in) 2008.” Now, I’d say that was that a pretty good call for half a year before the election. What do you think?
All my life I’ve been 75% correct about the future on the big issues. Exactly when things will happen is very hard to pin point, I have a tendency to think that events will happen sooner rather than latter, and they usually take longer than I originally thought, but eventually most of the things I predict become reality. I remember as a kid, in 1952, when Richard Nixon was nominated to be Dwight Eisenhower’s VP. I remember having this crystal clear vision of Richard Nixon being a major embarrassment to America. Also, as I’ve mentioned before, in 1964 I predicted that America would lose the Vietnam War.
I also said that Democratic Party VP choice John Edwards was a total joke. In the August issue of AFI on page 5, I wrote, “John Edwards as VP is like remaking the movie Patton and casting Woody Allen in the role of General Patton.”
I was correct again, Edwards, the liability lawyer scumbag, couldn’t even carry is own state. Same thing with Al Gore, another brain-dead Democrat candidates who can’t even carry their own state!
Here is the advice I gave to the Democrats 5 years ago. In the November 1999 issue on page 44, I wrote, “The political theory of holes says: When you find yourself in a deep hole, stop digging.” The Democrats have to stop nominating scumbag lawyers, and effete, ultra rich, expensive wine sipping, French cheese nibbling, New England snobs like Kerry (and Hillary), who would rather be Europeans than Americans.
After the election the usual TV dimwit talking heads were “amazed at the depth of emotion during the campaign” and the record breaking turn out of voters. Adam Wollander of Crimson Trace said he had a Bush sign in his window. He had to put it in his window because every time he put in on this front lawn it was destroyed. So, about 4:00 AM when it was clear that Kerry was losing, somebody threw a 30 pound concrete block through his front window!
If the TV talking heads had read some of my columns they wouldn’t have been so surprised. For over 40 years I’ve been excellent on the big grand strategy issues. In the November 1999 issue, on page 44, I outlined what was happening with America’s political future. I wrote, “America is into one of those historical major social and cultural turning points that come along once every fifty or ninety years. Believe me, this time it is a fight to the finish. America is either going to go down the ‘salvation by big government’ road where the power elite will tell everyone else what they can and cannot do with every detail of their lives. Or, we will return to the traditional road of understanding that people have to take responsibility for their own actions, and what any government can do is limited. We are in the middle of this process and we have confusion, anxiety and even chaos. Everyone is ‘jumpy,’ but certainly in ten years, or sooner, it will be clear what road America has chosen. Once chosen, we’ll be on that road for the rest of the lives of most people reading this page.”
History does not move in straight lines. There are big general trends, but history is like a Slinky toy. A Slinky toy has a metal band, a beginning and an end, but it usually coils back and around on itself before moving forward. Real history is the same. The demise of the Democratic Party won’t be in a straight line. My prediction for 2008 is that Hillary Clinton will run for President. At this time, November 2004, I think she has two chances out of three of winning in 2008.
If I was the Republican National Chairman I’d have a systemic campaign, starting immediately, to point out that Hillary left the South at the first opportunity. I’d continually point out that Hillary and Bill only used the South, like they exploited and used everything else in their lives. When I look at Hillary I don’t see a Southern woman, a real American, I see an East Coast, multi-millionaires European nobility wannabe. Hillary is exactly like John Kerry, what they want are coronations.
The above said, the Clintons are very smart. They are a lot smarter than John Kerry. Nobody should underestimate the Clintons. Oh, by the way, Kerry isn’t Kerry’s real family name. I didn’t think it was appropriate to say anything before the election, but John Kerry’s grandfather was about as Irish as Woody Allen. (Allen isn’t Woody Allen’s real last name either). I guess his Lordship, Sir Kerry, doesn’t want to be openly associated with his past? I guess he doesn’t want anything to do with we common folks? Kerry was like Dukakis in more ways then one. It didn’t work for Dukakis and it didn’t work for Kerry.
Anyway, thank God we won, it was close but close doesn’t count. The next four years will be a lot easier on our firearms industry with President Bush in office. President Bush does not have a clear idea of what’s happening in the Middle East, and he’s a lot more stubborn than he admits to himself. President Bush still has to learn that Terrorism is not a noun. Terrorism doesn’t grow up at night like mushrooms, or is brought down by little green men in flying saucers. Terrorism is a symptom, and if you don’t understand what’s causing the symptoms you don’t understand what’s happening in the Middle East and what to change. Kerry was correct about some things, he was correct when he said, “If you can’t define the real problem you can’t solve it.” Kerry had the correct general principle, but Kerry during the campaign didn’t have the courage to define the real problems. He worked at being an intellectual coward, at being an honesty draft dodger, at being a loser, and he succeeded.
President Bush is stumbling in the correct general direction, while Kerry would have gone in the wrong direction. Our firearms industry is in a better position, and America in general is in a better position because President Bush won. The Democrats are sulking, but this is a win for everyone: Republicans, Democrats, Americans and the world.
OTHER END OF YEAR PREDICTIONS
My prediction is that the economy during the next four years has a 70% chance of at best being flat. I think there is a 50-50 chance of stage-inflation sometime in the four years ahead, and that would help Hillary in 2008.
The housing bubble we are in now will end someday. After the bubble ends home prices (in non-inflated dollars) will remain flat in good areas, and decline in weak areas. Today, there are millions of homeowners who sincerely believe their homes will make them rich. Homes are not savings accounts. Homes are an expense. Today, millions of homeowners feel richer, they feel their home will pay for their retirement, and they are spending all the money they make and can borrow. This is not good for the long term. When the housing bubble breaks they will feel poor, and they will cut their consumer spending, (i.e. a flat economy for perhaps a long time). Nationally, the housing bubble ending won’t be as bad as when Houston’s housing bubble ended after the “old oil/new oil” scam of the 1970s, but it won’t be pretty.
The above prediction has implications for most industries. In thumbnail overall summary, companies in the firearms industry have to do four things: (1) try to increase the creative content of your company as much as possible. The creative content of a company and net profits are directly linked. And (2), figure out ways to take market share away from somebody else. Business is not going to become easier. (3) Think about the world market. America has the best shooting/police/military accessories in the world. (4) The American firearms manufacturers today are where Detroit was in the early 1970s. American firearms manufacturers have to go from producing okay guns, to producing the best guns in the world, even if the best guns are only part of their line. Detroit greatly improved the quality of cars it produced, and American firearms manufacturers can do the same.
END OF YEAR REMINISING
Over the last few years I’ve been working on the John Dagon series of novels that are basically about God. I’ve given a ton of highly painful and agonizing thought to God. To what He is, and what He wants. I believe God is real and I believe the Devil is real. I believe religion in America, and the world, will grow because modern science confirms the existence of God. I also believe that God is not a socialist, or a communist, or a left-wing Democrat. I believe God wants us to struggle and do the hard things. I believe God wants creative people to be kind, compassionate and to work for the betterment of mankind, but God also wants the best to be on top, and to be free to be creative. I believe God wants the winners to move civilization forward, but to think of all of humanity. If somebody dislikes those viewpoints, don’t argue with me. You can argue with God. God created the world and everything in it, and in God’s world the best of everything wins because that’s what God wants. The death of things is part of God’s world. New and better things can’t grow unless old things die. All of my life I’ve been an advanced edge thinker, and I’m sure the above viewpoints that seem crazy today will be what most America will someday believe. I’m sure religion will grow in importance in America, (it already is) and the world. I believe the great debates in the last half of this century will not be about socialism or communism (they’re already dead), the big issues will be about God, mankind and the relation between them.
I know that my above viewpoints sound strange in 2004, but I am absolutely convinced that all the big problems we think of as unsolvable today, they will all be solved. In the 21st Century everyone’s job is to not go crazy, to keep things in perspective, to have a sense of humor, to stay calm and to keep moving everything forward. The world’s objective must be to not make any real big mistakes, and everything else will in time take care of itself.
Andrew Molchan, president, National Association of Federally Licensed Firearms Dealers.
INDUSTRY
INSIGHTS
