INDUSTRY INSIGHTS

WAR AND PEACE

The CIA, and US Intelligence Community got a big one right. However, the popular media has TOTALLY ignored the win.

MONEY

The Stock Market rally from April 2009 to now is another sucker rally - get out if you can.

(July 11^th 2009) After 9/11 there was a highly successful con operation against the USA. Five foreign governments, motivated for different reasons, conned President Bush, and 99% of the American press, into believing

(1) "Weapons of mass destruction"  (WMDs) were being worked on in Iraq.

(2) These weapons were almost completed.

(3) That Saddam Hussein and Oasma bin Laden were working together, and

(4) Hussein was going to give bin Laden WMDs to use against the USA.

THE CON GAME IS EXPOSED. All of Iraq's intelligence records, and key intelligence people were captured, including Saddam Hussein. All of the disinformation about WMDs and so forth was proven to be part of a giant con game.

BUSH THE LOSER. In the Spring and Summer of 2007 there was another full court press aimed at Napoleon Bush. Bush was the ultimate military moron, and like Napoleon a profound curse to his nation's people. This new con game was coming from the same foreign groups that conned Bush into believing the WMD scam. This time around it was bombing Iran to "Save the American people." President Bush had learned NOTHING and went for the second con game hook, line and sinker.

AL QAEDA'S REAL OBJECTIVE. Being one of the best military grand strategy analysts in the world, I correctly analyzed Iraq situation right from the start. In the February 2004 issue of AFI Magazine, on page 37 I wrote, "So what's my read for this Ninth Crusade and Iraq? The Christian West lost the first eight Crusades for the same reasons the British lost the American Revolution and the USA lost in Vietnam. Even though the Crusaders were vastly superior in heavy attack armor (i.e. armored knights,) like the US is vastly superior in heavy attack armor now in 2004, the Crusaders could never pin down the Muslims. Al Qaeda is NOT even trying to win a classic old-fashioned military victory. Al Qaeda is trying to bleed America to death financially and is after a financial victory."

ANDREW WAS RIGHT. History has already proven me to be correct about Iraq. The American Army is dribbling away from Iraq just like the Crusaders dribbled away a thousand years earlier. This was NOT a failure of the average American fighting soldier who is the best in the world. Iraq was a TOTAL FAILURE OF LEADERSHIP AT THE TOP. President Bush was insane and his generals were ass kissers.

A HAPPIER ENDING. By 2007 President Bush was still in wacko land, and only wanted to think about killing rag-heads. However, some people in America's intelligence community had figured it out, and saw the original con game. The CIA and collected American intelligence community did a very smart thing.  Under the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the collected agencies issued The National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) that became public in late 2007. The objective of the NIE was to cut the rug out from under the bomb-Iran con game, and it worked.

YOU CANNOT FIRE EVERYONE. In the "good old days" if any intelligence analyst came up with the correct answer, but that answer was the politically wrong answer, then he or she would be marginalized and eventually fired for "incompetency." If an entire agency came up with the politically wrong analysis then a kiss ass agency would be found to attack the politically incorrect agency as incompetent. However, with all of the agencies endorsing the report, then the Bush brains could not fire everyone, and/or play one agency against the other. The collected American intelligence community put the good of America above their usual turf wars. 

BUT THEY TRIED. The bomb-Iran con game organizers planted several stories in European left wing newspapers about how the DNI was wrong, incompetent, and out to "get Bush." Then left wing newspapers in America picked up the European planted disinformation stories as "authoritative sources," etc. and so forth into the dark night of American communist journalism. However, by last 2007 the real estate market in the USA was already in deep trouble, and the bomb-Iran con game was run over and buried by the worsening financial conditions in the USA.

THE CIA SHOULD BE ON GUARD. A lot of money, work and effort went into setting up the 2007 bomb Iran con game. Because of its failure there are people looking for revenge, and looking for ways to set up the CIA. Some of the revenge seekers are part of foreign intelligence organizations, some are our allies, and some are on the inside of the CIA - beware.  

FAST FORWARD TO JUNE 2009.  The middle of June 2009 saw mass protests against the re-election of Iranian President Ahmadinejad. There were protests against Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and a split has now opened among the Ayatollahs. The symbol of Neda has become a part of the current Iran culture, and the protests have deep support.

ONCE IT STARTS!  I do something that few in Washington D. C. do. I read history books, and I understand what the books say. Once a "liberation movement" like what we have seen in Iran starts, in nine out of ten historical cases significant changes eventually happen.  It's usually an up and down process with the forces of stagnation and regression at times seeming to win.  In many historical examples the forces of stagnation looked like they won several times. Many times the struggle for more freedom was a multi-year struggle with "quit times" between the out breaks. However, the history of the world is clear, once a freedom movement of the kind we've just seen in Iran begins, it almost always ends in more freedom for the average person.

WHAT IF? What if back in the spring of 2007 Napoleon Bush had bombed Iranian targets? Politically that would have kept Ahmadinejad in power for at least the next fifteen years. Any kind of reform movement would have been DOA, killed by American bombs. Iran would have eventually re-built its nuclear program, and in the shorter term would have aggressively increased its activity inside of Iraq, and with the blessings of the Iranian people.

ATOMIC BOMBS?  Is Iran working on an atomic bomb? Certainly they are, without question. Can the USA stop them? NO. Atomic bombs are OLD technology. When the first atomic bomb was built 83% of the railroad traffic in the USA used steam locomotives  fired by coal, "air conditioning" existed in only 2% of America's buildings, 82% of the hot water heaters in the USA used coal, and big cities like Chicago still had some businesses that used wagons and horses.

SYMPTOMS VS. ROOT CAUSES. One of the main motivation forces behind Iran building atomic bombs is the West Bank. The West Bank is a de facto slave state. For 30 years, Iran and others asked the USA to do something about democracy, justice and freedom in the West Bank, and for 30 years the USA told Iran to -  Go F**k Off.  When Home sapiens cannot solve a problem one way, they start to look for other solutions. Iran reasons that it's going to be harder to ignore a nuclear power ­- and they're right.

A STRATEGY FOR VICTORY IN IRAN.  The road to victory in Iran runs through the West Bank. If America brought justice and freedom to the West Bank it would put an ice pick into the heart of Ahmadinejad, and cripple the ultra right wing in Iran.

BAD FOR ISRAEL?  There are many people in both Israel and the USA who sincerely believe that a truly independent West Bank would be bad for Israel. This is an example of how people can be sincere, passionate, and wrong. As one of the best grand strategists in the world, I know that a true resolution of the West Bank issue would prevent a nuclear exchange between Israel versus Iran, and possibly others. My question is: How is the prevention of a nuclear exchange NOT in Israel's interest? A person, or nation, cannot only look at what they are losing. They have to also look at what they are gaining. In the short term, and in the narrow view, there are pro-Israeli arguments for keeping the West Bank a de facto slave state. However, the slave state status is unsustainable, and will produce a nuclear war.

A FAILURE OF IMAGINATION.  In super grand strategy terms what we have on all sides with the West Bank is a failure of imagination, and a triumph of childish ego. We have to stop looking at only what could go wrong and start to see all the many things that could go right. We have to choose life. 

CONCLUSION. CONGRATULATIONS CIA, CONGRATULATIONS TO THE OFFICE OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE, AND CONGRATULATION S TO THE ENTIRE AMERICAN INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY.  YOU WON A BIG ONE FOR THE AVERAGE AMERICAN WORKER, AND FOR WORLD PEACE. The American Intelligence community is getting NOTHING from America's left wing press. However, I am the "seer" and I can give to a 100% guarantee - history will eventually give you credit. Standing up to President Bush's bomb-Iran insanity in 2007 was a modern "profiles in courage."

_______________ OTHER ISSUES ________________

(JULY 11^TH 2009) The stock market run-up from late March to now is one more sucker rally. In 2008 I told my readers in AFI magazine to take every rally as a suck rally and an opportunity to sell rather than buy. In March of 2009 I could see that the stock market was at a temporary bottom, and I sold all of my long-term shorts as I reported in AFI Magazine. I took some long positions that paid very high dividends.

GET OUT NOW. At this point if your stocks are still above water, then my advice would be to get out now and go into cash. We are not going to have inflation for some times, probably years, and there's nothing wrong with cash during a deflation.

INFLATION? America is still deep into a deflationary cycle. Yes, there is a very high probability of hyperinflation in the future. However, hyperinflation will NOT arrive until almost all of today's credit is destroyed, and there's a lot more credit yet to be destroyed. In a basically deflationary cycle there's nothing wrong with cash.

PRESIDENT OBAMA'S GRAND STRATEGY IS WRONG. As I've said all year, the Keynesian economics that President Obama is following is WRONG. Mr. Obama, and his economic advisors do NOT understand Keynesian economics. The key point is that Keynesian economics ONLY WORKS IN A CLOSED SYSTEM. In an open economic system like the USA has today, and in a system where the USA is the creditor, Keynesian economics will only bankrupt America faster.

THE COST? My regular AFI Magazine reads know that ever since the USA invaded Iraq I've reminded my readers that, "Big mistakes always come with a big price tag." The mistake of President Obama's wrong economic strategy is that the Democrats are going to get whacked in the 2010 Congressional elections. The Democrats could lose one, and possible both Houses of Congress. That would be the end of Mr. Obama's Harvard University communism. This is why Mr. Obama is desperate to push though all of the communist programs in the next 15 months.

OVERVIEW. President Obama is wrong about more than just Keynesian economics. The Harvard University communism (limousine liberalism) that President Obama is bringing to America never was the correct answer. The good part is that Mr. Obama's limousine liberalism will fail, and the failure will be hard to cover up.

WHAT ABOUT THE 2012 ELECTION?  Four weeks into the Obama administration I came to the conclusion that the 2012 presidential race was the Republican's election to lose. President Obama's economic strategy is WRONG. By the summer of 2012 the USA economy will be stagnating, government deficits will be over a trillion dollars a year, and interest payments will be going UP because the world will be turning its back on US treasury bonds.

AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH. All left-wingers dismiss my views because I'm not popular (few real "seers" are because they tell people what most people do NOT want to hear.)  However let me remind my left-wing friends of an inconvenient truth. There was only ONE person in the world that correctly, and unequivocally called the last Presidential election 18 months BEFORE the election. In the April 2007 issue of AFI Magazine on page 12, I wrote, "I am highly talented at big issues, and I am 100% sure that McCain running for President is a guaranteed loss. Most Republicans are still living in a dream world. Most Republicans do not want to see that President Bush has destroyed the Republican Party. The Republicans have been whipped out in the Northeast. The West is mainly California and it's solidly Democratic. The Midwest is so-so, and Illinois will definitely go Democratic. The only place where the Republicans are still strong is in the old South. McCain is old and puffy (he'll be 72 years old in 2008). He does not inspire much of anything, and he has ‘yesterday' written all over him. If he's the Republicans choice than we are DOA for next year's election." I'm calling the 2012 election over three years in advance - it's the Republican's election to lose.

-----THE MIND OF A GRAND STRATEGIST -------

I SEE DISASTER IN THE SHORT TERM. As I look out over the current world, what I see is greatly increasing velocity and mass for "creative destruction." There is good reason to be very pessimistic about America's immediate future. President Obama's economic strategy is wrong. It WILL fail, and that failure will cause much misery and suffering for the American people. For 80 years California has been the State that has arrived at America's future first. As I write this column California is preparing to pay its bills with IOUs.

CREATIVE DESTRUCTION. In 1963 President Kennedy was assassinated, and what would become the disaster of Vietnam had already been cemented into place. However, in the backwoods town of Roger, Arkansas, a truck driving young kid named Sam had just opened a store that would become one of the world's biggest corporations and change the face of retailing worldwide (Wal Mart). In 1997, when President Clinton was getting bl** jobs from Monica in the Oval Office, a few "nobody" kids in a California dorm room were laying out the plans for what would become the world's greatest information and teaching machine (Google.)  As I write this column, I am absolutely sure that somewhere in a nothing place, a few "nobody" kids have already outlined the start of what will become the organization that will re-engineers Homo sapiens. The re-engineering will solve all of today's "unsolvable problems" and open a new chapter in world history. So, short term I'm very pessimistic, but long term I'm totally optimistic. The Bible's promise of a paradise WILL be fulfilled on Earth. I will not live to see that day, but there are people already alive who will.

Be aware, be prepared, and keep reading AFI Magazine.

Andrew Molchan