Title: The Expansion or Contraction of the US Navy, a Grand Strategy Viewpoint.
Author: Andrew M Molchan
Date: Fri April 27th, 2012
4/27/2012, ANDY'S INSIGHTS. Today's WSJ has an Editorial by John Lehman, former Secretary of the Navy. Mr. Lehman is an adviser to Mitt Romney. Three years ago in April 2009 I predicted that Mr. Obama would be a one term President. So, Mr. Lehman will soon have influence in the White House.
I'm sure Mr. Lehman's intentions are good. However, he's a good example of how people at the very top in Washington DC CANNOT differentiate between Grand Tactics and Grand Strategy.
Mr. Lehman bemoans the decline of US Navy ship numbers under Pres Obama. Mr. Lehman says in his article, "This compromises our national security. The Navy is the foundation of America's economic and political presence in the world."
in my opinion, the above comments are a perfect example of Washington DC's narrow minded, tunnel vision TACTICS that dance around in a Grand Strategy dress.
HERE ARE THE CORE GRAND STARTEGY NUMBERS. America in 2012 has 20% of the World's Gross Product - AND THAT'S DECLING. America has 16% of the World's Gross Manufacturing - AND THAT'S DECLING. BUT, America is close to 50% of the World's Gross Military Spending. Conclusion? US military spending has to come down by half. OR, US Gross Manufacturing has to go UP by at least 200%.
Mr. Lehman is typical of Washington DC thinking at the top. He spends a lot of space in his article talking about the past. America is NOT the past anymore, AND NEVER WILL BE. Not even Jesus said he could bring back the past.
Military grand strategy power in the long run is based on economic power. Mr. Lehman's article is also an example of my advice for when you do analysis - you have to see what is NOT there. If Mr. Lehman wrote an article that WAS talking was talking about military grand strategy it would advocate: total tax law reform, tort law reform, deep education system reform, regulation reform, welfare reform, and US world investment/tax reform, and many other changes.
Mr. Lehman is a good person, but it's hard to not be cynical in the face of so much two-brain-cell thinking at the very top. What is the "National Security" Mr. Lehman says the US Navy is protecting? Chinese ships bringing Chinese made products to America so China can INCREASE its already gigantic balance of trade advantage?
The world has 51,000 merchant ships. Out of 51,000 total ships, 465 fly the American flag. Greece has 300% MORE ship tonnage than America. Total American flagged merchant ships are less than 1% of the world's shipping. But the cost of America's Navy is 40% of the total costs of the World's Navies. Apparently Mr. Lehman does NOT see anything wrong with the above numbers, and is advocating an INCREASE in America's percentage of the world total military Navy costs.
If I were the Dictator of America (and it's good that I'm not), but if a were I'd order US Submarines to sink the Chinese merchant ships. I'd tell the American people, "If you want those products then get somebody in America to make them - or do without."
On this issue, President Obama is absolutely correct. It's long past the time to get America's military spending in line with America's production. The US Navy adds almost nothing to the US economy, but costs a fortune every year. American merchant ships are NOT bringing products from America's colonies to America. Unlike England in the 17th Century to after WWII. America his ZERO overseas empire and trade to protect.
The other side of the coin is America's big Navy IS a TREAT. America does NOT act rationally. America DOES attack other Nations. America DOES bomb woman and children. America's "Closest Ally" has Asia's only remaining Colony that it keeps in line with massive military repression. You're not paranoiac If the bombs and barred wire are real. If America's Navy was smaller then other's might also have a smaller Navy.
Mr. Lehman is also NOT be totally honest with either himself and/or US. The Chinese Navy is mainly looking at the growing Indian Navy.
Mr. Lehman's article, in my opinion, once again reveals Washington DC's almost fanatical, and almost desperate attempts to convince themselves that it's still WWII. I have news, the Imperial Japanese Combined Fleet is at the bottom of the ocean. If anyone is worried about the growing Chinese fleet then STOP giving China $400 Billion US Dollars every year.
I'm the ONLY person in America who's complaining about Bernanke's Queer Money financing Chinese military, grand strategy world economic expansion. Almost nobody in Washington DC gets it. That's because in their minds they're still fighting the battle of Midway.
The message to Washington DC should be, "Hey, ding-dongs! Wake up and smell the coffee! If you're too brain frozen to figure out grand strategy then start listening to those who were always right. If you're too cowardly to do the unpleasant jobs then at the very least don't do any harm."
What's an "unpleasant job"? Telling most Americans that they have to deal with the real world the way it exists right now, and America CANNOT afford everything. Telling most Americans that a "desire" is not a "right." Telling most Americans that "Equal" in the Constitution means Equal Opportunity NOT Equal money. If you have a 75 IQ and dropped out of High School, and you're not making as much money as somebody with a 150 IQ who spent 6 years in college it's not because of man-made discrimination. It's God's discrimination.
How's this for an "unpleasant job"? Telling people to learn to speak English - rather than ghetto English that labels you as lazy as soon as you open your mouth.
A nation's grand strategy is its TOTAL PACKAGE. It's tax system, laws, education, welfare, banks, insurance, manufacturing, the QUALITY of its population, the national IQ, natural resources, geopolitical position, and the ability or inability to stay in contact with reality, and NOT drift off into never-never land where most of Washington DC now lives.
I take a very long view, and I'm long term totally optimistic about the world. It will NOT be a straight line, and not in this Century, but paradise is coming. However, short term I'm inclined to believe that America has painted itself into a corner, and has become unworkable.
In my view the correct grand strategy for America would be to do whatever can politically passed to slow down America's decline. In military, economic, and social terms that means PULLING BACK onto our areas of big picture social/cultural/economic strong points, and trying to hold the line for as long as possible while history does its thing.
Is there anyone who want to know the REAL National Defense, Grand Strategy disaster? It's the current 2012-2013 Federal Budget. The current Budget is 42% FED fabricated Queer Money and Borrowed Money. 10% would be Bad, 42% is a disaster. The current US Navy is in large part paid for with money borrowed from the Chinese, and/or fabricated by the crackpots at the FED. The US economy right now is powered by Queer Money and delusions of yesterday returning. The real enemy is US.