Title: The Last 48 Years, Who was Correct and Who was Wrong, and What it Means for This Election.
Author: Andrew M Molchan
Date: Sun September 9th, 2012
Sept 9th 2012. The Last 48 Years, Who was Correct and Who was Wrong? And WHY?
Going back 48 years to 1964. I correctly predicted America's defeat in Vietnam. 99% of the senior Officers in the Pentagon were Wrong, I was right.
I have a confession. The Vietnam War analysis was not totally mine. It came mainly from Dr. Hans Morgenthau (a German Jew, 1904-1980) who I had the honor of meeting at the University of Chicago, and a person who is one of my great heroes. However, I was smart enough to see that Dr. Morgenthau was correct when 99% of the senior Officers in the Pentagon, and Washington DC total idiots like Lyndon Johnson were 100% wrong.
HISTORY SIDE NOTE: In all of the World's history, there was ALWAYS a person who had the Correct Answer. They were usually NOT those in power, and often a little weird. Being a good analyst is being able to recognize who IS correct rather than the usual Washington DC way of looking ONLY for those who SHOULD be correct.
One of Dr. Morgenthau's Core Rules for great powers was, "Never Allow a Weak Ally to Make Decisions for You." Page 565, Politics Among Nations, 1961, 3rd Edition.
Violating the above rule has become a religion for the Republicans. It's what Iraq War 2 was all about, and what Afghanistan is all about. I would suggest that the Stepin Fetchit, dupe Republicans read Dr, Morgenthau's book.
In the 1970s, I started predicted the breakup of the Soviet Union, and the military/economic decline of the USSR. A year before the 1989 breakdown of the USSR, 95% of the CIA's analysts, and 97% of the Pentagon's senior Officers were totally clueless.
I have a confession, the breakup of the USSR was not my analysis. It was the analysis of the brilliant Austrian economists, Friedrick von Hayek (1899-1992). Dr. Hayek was also at the University of Chicago from 1950 to 1962.
Dr. Hayek was able to see the eventual breakup of the Soviet Union, and wrote his analysis in his famous book, The Road to Serfdom. Amazingly, The Road to Serfdom was written in 1943 when the Soviet Union had already de facto won the war in Europe against Germany, and was going to acquire a new empire in Eastern Europe.
Dr. Hayek was a brilliant grand strategist who could see the long term big picture even though the immediate events suggested the exact opposite of his 1943 conclusions.
Dr. Hayek's main point was that Central Planning will ALWAYS fail, and the More Central Planning you have the BIGGER the eventual failure. History has proven Dr. Hayek to be Correct.
The United States in the last four years has taken MASSIVE STEPS towards Expanding USSR like Central Planning. Aside from ObamaCare, America now has the FED faggot's totalitarian dictatorship. The American economy is now so Centrally Planned by the FED faggots the ONLY thing Wall Street real cares about is what the faggots are going to do next.
If there was NO Federal Reserve, today in 2012 America would be on the road to a True Recovery, and possibly even a second American industrial revolution. Rather than on the road to an slow motion financial death like Japan. The FED faggots are NOT the solution, they ARE the problem. The US FED mindset is totally ghetto.
In 1991, after the Failure of the USSR, I made a prediction that was mainly mine. I said that the difference between the USSR, and the USA, was 30 years. The USA would eventually collapse for the same Central Panning failure reasons that destroyed the USSR. 20 years later the US is on the USSR road with ever bigger Central Planning by idiots.
In 2007, when the stock market was still going UP to its all time High. I said, "Real Estate will be dead fish on the sidewalk for the next ten years." In 2009 Bernanke said that the FED's QuEer Money would "Revive" Real Estate by 2010. Who was correct?
Confession, I took the Real Estate analysis from Harry Dent. But I was smart enough to see that Mr. Dent was correct - the FED faggots to this day still don't Get It.
In 2009, I said that the FED Dictatorship was doing exactly what the Japanese FED had been doing for 20 years (i.e. ultra low central planning interest rates). I pointed to the FACT that all the Japanese got for 20 years of zero rates was a MASSIVE Increase in their National Debt and a stagnate, slow death economy. (Japan went from the #2 economy in the world to #3, and will SOON be #4). I said that the FED faggots would get exactly the same results from exactly the same program. In 2009, Bernanke said the FED's QuEer Money, "Would fire-up America's animal-spirits," and by 2011 America would be back to full employment. Bernanke was WRONG.
I got the Iraq War II exactly correct. From the start I wrote that Iraq War II was a multi-layered, three-dimensional, grand strategy con game. I said that Osama bin Laden understood America better than most Americans. I wrote that 9/11 was the "bait," and America swallowed the bait. Osama understood that "America's friends" would con America into an Iraq War II. A war that Napoleon Bush needed to look good. I said that Osama's Real Objective was destroying the American economy, and that he'd succeed in tricking America into financially destroying itself. This was my analysis, and it's correct even though 75% of Washington DC, and 85% of the "Press." still cannot see it.
In the mid-1970s, I warned about the kind of attack that happened during 9/11. However, when I went to Washington DC trying and get airline pilots armed (something that WOULD have prevented 9/11) everyone in Washington DC said I was, "A nut case."
Confession, I took part of my Iraq War II, and Afghanistan War analysis from the great Peter Drucker. Over 30 years ago Dr. Drucker said that modern advances in communications and organization available to even small groups had made ALL Large Armies impotent for decisively effecting the flow of history by force of arms short of nuclear war.
Dr. Drucker was correct. The advances in communications and organization available to even small groups has GROWN. As that grows the "value" of big Armies Decreases. What's the "Outcome Value" in the Afghanistan War of America's Trillions of Dollars worth of: Tank Divisions, Jet Fighters, Stealth Bombers, Air Craft Carriers and so forth? Their war winning "value" in Afghanistan is ZERO.
In my opinion, Pres Obama's biggest asset for re-election is that he's not a Stepin Fetchit to the suicidal Zionists. Pres Obama understands what Dr. Morgenthau was saying. However, Mr. Romney is still part of the religion that believes, "Let's Allow Our Weak Allies To Make America's War Decisions." Mr. Romney believes that Pres Obama is making a big political mistake by NOT being a Stepin Fetchit.
Dr. Mrgenthau wrote: "A Great Nation Must have Objectives that Are In the Best Interest of the Great Nation." This is what Pres Obama is doing by not being conned into a war with Iran. As a grand strategist, looking at the big picture to the end of this Century, it's crystal clear to me that American's long term military viability needs the Iranians much more than the Zionists. Iran is a big country (75 million people), in land area its almost Five Times the size of Germany, it's in a historically vital Geopolitical location, it was once a great world power. Iran has the Biggest coast line on the Persian Gulf, and a coast line on the Arabian Sea. Iran still has very strong historical/cultural ties in the region.
Nothing would make the ghost of Osama bin Laden happier than an American attack on Iran.
In late April 2009, three months after Mr. Obama took office I wrote, "The US economy is going nowhere. The next Presidential election is the Republican's election to lose." However, the Republicans have put a lot of work into losing it.
And the Band plays on.