Title: Where Andy went Wrong with his Predictions, and WHY.
Author: Andrew M Molchan
Date: Thu September 20th, 2012
Sept. 20th, 2012. Where Andy's Predictions Went Wrong, and WHY.
In April of 2009 my prediction was that Pres Obama would be a one term President. I knew that Real Estate would go NOWHERE in the next four years. I knew the employment was going nowhere in the next four years. I was 100% sure that Real Estate in 2012 would NOT be much better than 2009, and I was also sure that real, de facto, unemployment would still be very high.
I asked myself, "Can Mr. Obama be re-elected after four years of high unemployment?" My answer was, "No." At the time, I said, "I have only one chance in seven of being wrong."
I did hedge by also saying in April 2009, "The 2012 election is the Republican's to lose." However, I was thinking, "How the Hell are they going to lose?"
My core analysis Flaw in early 2009 was believing that people in Washington DC would Kind-Of do the right things. I did not like the FED, but I did NOT believe they would dump TRILLIONS of Queer Dollars into the stock market. More QuEer Money than the cost of America fighting World War Two. I was brain dead. The lights were on in the Andy house but nobody was home. It was a classic mistake of totally ignoring the history that I already knew.
In the 1936 Presidential election, Roosevelt was re-elected to a second term despite four years of high unemployment. Roosevelt won in 1936 because with lots of Government Money the stock market went UP by 150% in 1935-36. One of the biggest percentage increases in stock market history. I was brain dead for NOT seeing that would happen again.
After the 1936 election, the 1937 stock market crashed again. Like the stock market will probably crash again in 2013.
In the 1940 Presidential election, World War II had already started in Europe and the Pacific. America was getting war product business and work from England, and it was a different political ball game.
THE WORLD DOES CHANGE.
The Republicans in Washington DC do NOT realize that the ratification of the 2nd Amendment by the Supreme Court in June of 2010 was A MAJOR GAME CHANGER.
Up to June 2010, for a half Century before that date the Republicans could count on 15 million to 25 Million "One issue voters." The ONLY issue for up to 25 million voters was the 2nd Amendment. NOW, those one issue voters are multi issue voters.
In June of 2010 I wrote, "The Democrats are screaming all over the place. But, the Supreme Court's ruling is the BEST THING that happened to Democrats in the last half Century. It got the 'Gun Control' Monkey off of their backs."
What's happened since June of 2010 is that the Republican Party's "Stinky Baggage" has become a BIGGER percentage of this election, and all future elections.
For decades "Gun People" by the Millions said, "We don't care about anything other than how you stand on gun control. If you're pro-firearms, you HAVE OUR vote." That equation has CHANGED.
What are the Republicans current two biggest pieces of, "Stinky Baggage"?
(1) The biggest pile of crap on the dinner table is the Republican's fanatical compulsion-sickness to be the dupe, weak, brain-dead, Stepin Fetchit servants of the crazy, bigoted, suicidal, Zionists slave holders.
What are the old sayings? "Tie your ship to a sinking boat." "Attach yourself to a falling Star." "Take on the habits of people who are always in trouble and you'll be in trouble too."
(2) An equally big pile of crap is the Republicans wanting to be al Qaeda with Government dictatorship powers over what a woman can do with her own body.
Believe it or not, there ARE a lot of Women who don't want the Government telling them what they can do with their bodies. But, women are only 50% of the vote so why worry?
If Republicans can tell women what to do with their bodies then what's wrong with Obama telling people what to do with their money? You cannot be half of an al Qaeda.
Like the Democrats in June of 2010, all kinds of Republicans will be screaming that getting the above infected, Crap Monkeys off of their backs would be the, "End of the World." In reality, it would be the BEST THING that could happen to the Republican Party.
Let me turn the coin around. Unless the Republicans DO get the above Crap Moneys off of their backs; I have a hard time seeing how the Republican Party can survive long-term.
We are back to Now, today, and Mitt Romney destroying my 2009 prediction. I'm pissed.
At this point, the Oct. 3rd and Oct 16th Presidential Debates are looking more and more like Romney's last hope.
The Oct 16th Debate will be handled by Jim Lehrer of PBS. Not especially good for any Republican.
Lehrer IS going to try and set traps for Romney. Romney has to give Lehrer lots of unexpected curve balls to get him off balance, while making his points.
One of Romney's problems is that he's a know it all, and unasked for advice in never taken. But to make myself happy I'll give Mr. Romney the right advice anyway.
There's an old saying, "There's a lot more good advice around than there are good people to take it."
OVERALL STRATEGY. Whatever question Lehrer brings up, jump over it with an extended sound bite, and go to Jobs, jobs, jobs. Try to say something that at least sounds like it's specific.
Lehrer, "Mr. Romney, you have said that 47% of the American people don't mean anything and don't count for anything?"
Romney, "I was talking about taxes, and 47% of the workers in America do not pay income tax. America has a horrible problem and everyone is going to have to help. In my view the 47% of workers who do not pay income tax would feel much better about themselves, and better about helping the America they live in and love if they paid some tax, even if it's only fifty-cents a day. And about jobs..."
Lehrer, "Mr. Romney, do you support the Government banning abortions?"
Romney, "I, like millions of other Americans, have deep feelings about this issue. America's founding fathers who wrote the Constitution and Bill of Rights were the greatest collection of political geniuses in the world. They wanted separation of Church and State. About increasing jobs in American I would..."
Lehrer, "Many have called Israel America's greatest ally. Are you going to help Israel in stopping Iran from getting terrorist nuclear bombs?"
Romney, "There is no doubt that America's Middle East polices are a shambles and failures. This is why we need a new team in the White House - my new team. I will formulate a new grand strategy for all of the Middle East and get America back on track. And about jobs..."
Lehrer, "Many people say that you, Mr. Romney, do NOT care about the poor, but only the rich?"
Romney, "We all live in the same country. President Obama's policy of running deficits of over a Trillion Dollars a year are a disaster in the long run. Under President Obama the National Debt has increased by almost double America's cost of fighting World War Two. If this keeps up America will have horrible inflation, and inflations hurts the poor more than anyone else. When businesses have inflated costs that they cannot pass on to their customers what do they do? They fire people. I'm not trying to save the rich, I'm trying to save the poor. And about jobs..."
I, Andy, could easily write 300 more debate pages. However, I get the feeling that everyone at Republican Headquarters already has all of the answers. They don't care about learning anything, and maybe that's one of their problems?