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Predictions for the Next 150 Years Prediction # 1 America Will Have a Rolling Recession from 2008 through 2022. by Andrew Molchan (This article first ran in the January 2008 issue of American Firearms Industry Magazine.) (December 27th 2007) THE GOOD NEWS The "echo boom" and "Me" generation that have been coming on-line as consumers, they are very pro-firearms ownership. Their preferences are more self-defense and shooting than classical hunting, but this group will increase its firearms buying for the next 30 years. Manufacturers need to shift away from classical hunting to more self-defense. They also need to expand as fast as possible, into markets outside of the USA. THE SO-SO NEWS The "baby-boomer generation" is now 100% past their peak buying age of 48 on their age bell-curve. The baby-boomers are declining as firearms buyers. By the year 2020 they will be insignificant for our industry. Manufacturers and importers MUST update their marketing strategy and get as close to their younger customers as possible. That means a strategy based on the Internet, games, movie and TV program placements, and marketing-partnerships with your retailers. You must constantly be asking yourself, "What does the 18 to 30 age group consider to be value in a shooting product?" Manufacturers, importers and retailers MUST be aware of the significant shifts that are taking place at the customer level. Manufacturers, importers and retailers must up-date their marketing mental set. They must start increasing the kinds of products, images, and marketing that will appeal to the kind of young customers who admire Johnny Depp rather than John Wayne. If you want an insight into the current young American generation, the next time you’re in a big shopping mall stop in a "Hot Topic" store. The above change of attitude will not be easy. Most manufacturers and importers face a massive China Wall of old mental-set distributors, old mental-set reps, and an obsolete SHOT Show. Most of our firearms industry is like our government. We’re trying to make yesterday work. Those manufacturers and importers who are telling themselves that yesterday will bounce back are going to find themselves in deep financial trouble. "Yesterday’s" market is the baby boomers and all the denial in the world isn’t going to stop the baby boomers from growing old, feeble and dying. Many firearms retailers would say, "I don’t get that many young people in my store." Invariably, when you look at their store it screams Woodstock generation, and/or Norman Rockwell. Take down the deer head and put up some contemporary movie posters. For years, I have encouraged gun dealers to stock paintball guns because it’s one way to get young people into the habit of coming into your store. Today’s 16 year old is tomorrow’s 21 year old gun buyer. THE BAD NEWS The next 14 years are going to be a painful and difficult economic, political and emotional period for America. The unwinding of the current "sub-prime" delusion is only the start, only the first of many delusions that are going to come crashing down over the next 14 years. American real estate has already gone into deflation. Low tax and "retirement states" like Texas and Florida will start to come back in five years because of retiring baby-boomers. However, real estate in much of the Northeast and upper Midwest, in non-inflated dollars, will remain down for 14 years. Today, right now, 25% of America’s adult population are without savings of any kind.When Mr. Clinton was president, bank savings accounts paid 3.75%.Then President Clinton raised the tax rates to 35%, so that 3.75% bank interest was really only 2.40%. It was under President Clinton that the Treasury Department started to systematically and significantly under report inflation. The result was that keeping money in a bank savings account was a net purchasing power loss. President Clinton thus forced the majority of bank savings into the stock market (the Clinton "economic miracle"), which created a stock boom that served Mr. Clinton well in the short run. However, in the long run it was part of the Matrix of fraud that laid the groundwork that will now give America years of economic hardship. The current "sub-prime" delusion is a perfect example of how current and future Government interference will take the problems the government created, and then make them worse. For years the Government looked the other way at widespread and systemic fraud in real estate applications, mortgage qualifications, banking "creative" book keeping, manipulations from the rating agencies, bundling and "securitization" (i.e. selling the con game mortgages to overseas investors). In my home area of South Florida, high school dropouts were making $250,000 a year for their willingness to falsify the information on mortgage applications. EVERYONE knew what was happening. After condoning real estate fraud for years, Congress now wants to pass a law cutting the contractual mortgage payments for people who claim they really didn’t want to pay what they agreed to pay. Congress is now telling the world’s investors (the suckers who were conned into buying tens of billions of dollars of American mortgages). Congress is telling the worlds investors that signed contracts in America are now ass wipe. What people agreed to pay and/or do via an American contract does NOT mean anything. You’re either a stand-up person who does what he agrees to do, especially in a contract, or you’re a slimy weasel who’s word doesn’t mean anything. Congress has undermined 210 years of Contract Law. The "cost" of turning American contracts into shit is that the Chinese, Arabs and Europeans who purchased tens of billions of dollars worth of American mortgages and who are getting screwed, The overseas multi-billion dollar flow of mortgage money is history – it’s over for a good 20 years. The Federal Reserve can bring interest rates down to 1% and it won’t do anything for real estate because the money that powered the American real estate bubble was NOT coming from America. The crisis that will follow real estate, Mrs. Clinton’s "mandatory" health plan, is another Clinton con game. (a) Everyone who understands the "health crisis" knows that the insurance companies are the problem, NOT the solution. (b) Hospitals have been forced by the government’s stupid laws, and by the scumbag lawyers, to put a 400% market up on everything. Your 20% "co-pay" on almost all insurance policies turns into a $100,000-plus expense for thousands of people every month. (c) We all know that Mrs. Clinton’s mandatory health insurance "punishments" for not having insurance would ONLY be applied to businesses and the working middle class. The irresponsible who do not have insurance now, and will not in the future, the government won’t do anything against them. (d) Mrs. Clinton’s plan is in reality a crushing tax increase on businesses and workers at a time when America needs massive tax cuts for the middle class and business. (e) Residential real estate is in the news, but in late 2008 and early 2009 commercial real estate will be whacked even harder. (f) As the economy slows over the years, tens of thousands of marginal retail stores will go out of business. (g) The owners of commercial real estate will still have high local real estate taxes, maintenance and up keep costs, insurance, etc., but no renters. (h) The key question; who’s eyeball deep into hundreds of billions of dollars worth of commercial real estate? (i) Answer, the insurance companies. In 2009 the insurance company financial crises will start. (j) Mrs. Clinton’s great health care "solution" is based on insurance companies that will be insolvent. (k) Her health care "solution" is another Clinton smoke and mirrors act designed sole to get her past November 4th 2008 - election day. PREDICTIONS FOR THE SHORT-TERM #1 The real estate bubble will "return" in 25 years, but for the immediate years in front of us, galloping upward home prices are history. #2 Vietnam War II (i.e. Iraq) is already "lost" via classical military definitions.Vietnam War II will end in a similar way to Vietnam War I. #3 After six years of being totally wrong about the Middle East, Mr. Bush SINCERELY does NOT understand why some people in the NIC, CIA, The State Department, press, etc are questioning his war judgments. The Bush Presidency will cling to being wrong until the bitter end. #4 The next big financial problem after real estate is going to be a credit card default crisis as jobs and income start slowing down in 2008 and beyond. The credit card "game" has MORE fraud than the real estate bubble. Congress has and IS continuing to look the other way. Credit card companies have flooded America with credit cards. The card companies are now ripping- off the American people with charges of 19% to 35% for transfers and/or late fees. Sixty years ago, when America was a much more ethical and moral country, rates of 19% were called "usury and loan sharking" and were illegal. Mr. Barack Obama, has said, "We need to stop credit-card companies from engaging in deceptive practices that are pushing middle-class Americans further into debt and eventual mass insolvency." #5 The government will continue to underreport inflation. The government’s figure of 2.3% is as queer as a three-dollar bill. The systemic fraud of under reporting inflation has for years been supported by both the Democrats and Republicans, and was enshrined during the Clinton years. The Clintons are the Cesare and Lucrezia Borgia of America. The government has been (and is) stealing billions of dollars in purchasingpower every year from: (a) Social Security recipients; (b) U.S. Bond holders; (c) Everyone with a "cost of living" in their work agreement or retirement; (d) Those who still have bank savings accounts, and so forth down the list. Take Social Security as a example, real inflation is 8%, but official inflation is 2.3%, and thus Social Security payments are going up by the official" 2.3%.That’s a 5.7% per year difference, which is a 57% difference at the end of ten years. Social Security checks in "purchasing power" are going down every year.This is the government’s long-term de facto "solution" for Social Security. PREDICTIONS FOR THE NEXT TEN YEARS #1 Different parts of the economy will have up and down wobbles, but the overall American economy will slow for several years. #2 Commodity prices: oil, copper, gold, iron, lead, steel, etc will come down as the world’s economy slows. #3 Countries with a "commodity based economy" i.e. the Middle East, Africa, will come under significant economic pressure. #4 The America stock market is going to be a very frustrating place. You’d probably be just as well off to sell all of your stocks, and park your money in very high quality corporate bonds (they pay 7% to 9%) from corporations that do a lot of business in Asia. #5 A credit card crisis will hit because of slowing employment, and slower consumer spending. Sixtyfive percent of the American economy is "consumer spending," and when it slows there will be a snowball effect that will drive real estate and stocks lower. #6 The stock markets of Asian countries with large exports to America, will go down. However, unlike America’s stock market they will recover in a few years, and start to replace lost business from America with business to intra-Asian markets. #7 Many of America’s local governments in 2009 will go into financial crisis because of reduced tax revenue. A big part of the Federal "mortgage bailout" is to protect local tax revenue. #8 America in the next ten years will have some similarities to Japan in the 1990’s, especially in the area of real estate and banks. The Japanese Federal Reserve brought interest rates down to 1/2 of 1% and still Japanese real state did NOT move for years. #9 The increased levels of tension and unrest in America (and the world) will keep firearms sales high, but primarily self-defense firearms. #10 The key to success in the future will be learning how to get very close to the customers, and learning how to profitably customize products. A brilliant example of doing it right is Mr. Dave Skinner at STI International.The key is to shift your marketing objectives. Concentrate on the manufacturerdealer- customer core triad. #11 Many business managers are telling themselves that yesterday’s way of doing things will return. In a few years, those who do not change are going to find themselves in serious trouble. #12 The coming economic hard times in America will finally bury the 1968 political mind set – and thank God. Personally, I am so tired of hearing the same old 1960’s crap over and over. Hillary Clinton is the personification of the 1960’s. Back in 1960 I was an NAACP member at a time when it was unfashionable and dangerous. Today, in 2007 the Democrats are still talking about school segregation, busing, and discrimination in THE PRESNET TENSE. I want to say, "Hey, assholes, that’s all ancient history." It’s so very easy to volunteer for a war that was over a quarter century ago. Some people have asked me, "Andy, when did you change?" I never changed. In 1960 when I was an NAACP member, that was a highly unpopular and dangerous place to be, but I was in the right place doing the right thing for the long-term good of America. The truly unequal things of 1960 had to go. Today, I’m still in a place that’s highly unpopular and dangerous, and still saying and doing the right things for America’s long term good. #13 Because of the slowing American/European economies, and thus declining exports from Asia to America and Europe, the southern Asian countries will start to organize their own EU like common market, and start a common currency. Like the Euro, the new Asian currency will become a competitor to the US dollar. #14 Canada: eastern Canada will stagnate like the northeaster USA, but western Canada will be vibrant. Fourteen months ago, in this column, when the Canadian dollar was 91¢ to the US dollar, I said the Canadian dollar would go up over the US dollar. Everyone said I was crazy. In November 07 it went up to 1.09 to the US dollar. The readers who took my advice made 21% profit on what was a very safe investment. At the same time, when many professions like TV’s Larry Kudlow (normally a very smart person) were saying that oil would go to $45 a barrel, I said it would hit $100 a barrel. In late 2007 it hit an inter day high $99 a barrel, $1 short of my prediction. #15 Iran. I’m 100% sure that the Iranians already know how to build nuclear bombs – it’s not that hard. Iran probably already has enough U235 for a several bombs. Iran will be very coy about what it does or does not have. PREDICTIONS FOR THE NEXT 15 YEARS #1 China is presently growing fast, but it will only get to 50% of America’s or Western Europe’s Gross Product Per Head (GPH) in this century. The migration from the northern rural areas of China to the big cities is already slowing. China will have a lack of 21 to 28 year old people. Innovations are started and powered by 21-28 year olds. In this century, China will grow old before it grows really rich. #2 Black Africa had a "window of opportunity" in the 1980’s and 1990’s, but totally failed to make the transition out of childhood. The core problem is that Black Africa, as a whole, is genetically stupid. As Ron White says, "There’s no cure for stupid." The left wing groups in America have worked overtime for 25 years to lay a guilt-trip on white working class Americans for everything that’s wrong in Africa: poverty, corruption, AIDS, and so forth. AIDS for example, there is a 100% immediate cure for AIDS in Africa – stop screwing everything that moves. PREDICTIONS FOR THE NEXT 40 YEARS, AND BEYOND #1 China, along with Japan and Thailand will be in the vanguard of introducing the new human species during the later half of this century. However, there will not be a "big bang" with the new species in this century.That will come in the next century. #2 India will be the world’s biggest economy, by 2050, not China. #3 Most economic analysis has already written Japan off for the long run. The Japanese are not having children. However, Japan will build a robotic society, and it will become a successful slave society (i.e. mechanical slaves). Long term, Japan will be in the forefront of engineering the new species, and the new species will be the "industrial revolution" and/or "information revolution" of the 22nd century. Japans declining Homo sapiens will turn out to be a long term advantage because there will not be that many people to replace. #4 America’s large population of low I.Q. Homo sapiens will prove to be a major long-term economic drag. #5 The new species will also become the "decisive" military asset. If America’s new military weapons are being designed by Homo sapiens with an average I.Q. of 150, however Asia’s new military systems are being designed by the new species with an average I.Q. of 250, who’s going to have the superior systems? #6 Russia has a lack of young people. The two countries that desperately need to be at the forefront of a new species development are Japan and Russia. However, Russia, although old, will still have hundreds of nuclear weapons, oil, gas, farm land, trees and lots of natural resources. #7 "Global warming" is 80% hysteria and 20% truth. The biggest benefactors of global warming will be Russia and Canada. Both countries have a treasure house of natural resources that have been locked in ice for thousands of years. This treasure is now becoming available. In Canada and Russia, up to a million acres will open up to farming, and the "tree line" (lumber, paper, fuel, etc) will move northward. #8 Some of America’s most creative and wealthiest citizens will become totally feed up with the American government’s stupidity, and they will leave America – taking their innovations, talent and money with them. #9 America’s collected I.Q. has been declining for years, that trend will speed up and increase. #10 For 50 years America’s share of the world’s "Total Product" has decreased.This trend will start to significantly speed up. #11 Great social changes have always produced significant wars. There will be some significant wars in this century, most likely in the Middle East. America, as usual, will rush to be in the middle of something it does not have to be in the middle of, and millions of Americans will be killed. PREDICTIONS FOR THE 22ND AND 23RD CENTURIES #1 After Homo sapiens are totally gone, sub-Sahara Africa will become the most popular area in the world to live. #2 The world’s population in the late 22nd century will settle in at one billion, and stay there for centuries. #3 The world will be using one currency. #4 The new species will be able to learn languages easily, and 22nd century English will be the international language. #5 A confrontation between the new human species and machines will grow. New and smarter species will be under constant development in a race to keep up with the machines. #6 Once some country officially starts the engineering of humans, it will become worldwide and increase in speed. In the 23rd century the latest line of "humans" will be a combination of flesh and blood and machines. It would be difficult for a person from our time to see where one part started and the other part left off. Every amalgamation of that time will have all the knowledge of the world, and be incredible strong.When the machine/body part grows older, the collected mind of that person will be transferable in total to a new body/machine, and thus, everyone will be immortal. American Firearms Industry magazine is a business-to-business publication (issued monthly). It is only circulated to professionsals within the American and International arms industry and to interested parties within the universe of law enforcement, security and the military. For those interested in subscribing to American Firearms Industry, please email kathy@amfire.com for details. |